I Can See What's Happening

We're going to get a rally on Wall Street Today, but it's not going to look like what you think it's going to look like.

So what will it look like? Well. The first thing you want to do, is to go ahead and check what sort of stocks were selling well last week - about this time. The idea behind the rally today is , putatively - the removal of the downward pressure that Greece was putting on the markets. The Euro has so far saved alot of headaches and cash for the EU, and improved international trade and parity with the US Dollar and the Chinese. This has been very good for the EU, and its the reason why Germany held on. We're buying Volkswagens, Porsches and Mercedes. They're selling them. The only responsible country in the EU decided it's better to try to work out the differences inside the Eurozone and keep the Euro, than it was to trash it and go back to a fragmented currency.

That's the bottom line. But what happened in Greece, was theft on a high scale in at least three dimensions. This country has financial issues that are almost irreparable. Germany should not be responsible for them.

And so, here we were - on the opposite side of the pond - with all kinds of financial instruments laid bare and ready to burn if Greece went into default - and the Germans were left to decide.

Stocks that belleweather American industry, normally lay out along the line of shipping, rail, and transportation. These stocks presage market upturn because they're moving the increased inventory demand into either warehouse, or point of sale. You can safely put your money into the markets when these stocks have become strong again - because it indicates that middle managers are requesting more inventory. Their sales have turned up, but the report hasn't hit the market.

I am not sure, honestly - of the stocks that belleweather an averted financial crisis. I've only seen one real crash, and I was honestly surprised at the stocks that got hit. I imagine there will be industry sectors that will rally. What you want to do, today - is to go back for a bit, and see which stocks were quietly bought up over the last two weeks. That is about how long, the insiders have had - to set their position. You don't necessarily need to follow their sell pattern - today, however, because they're making money off positions they've already set. It's just that you're going to be able to figure out where the rally points are.

I imagine, however, the market will be in a broad rally thanks to investor enthusiasm. They will celebrate the idea that one of the worst crashes in the history of the market - and its recessional aftermath - are somehow receding. Spring is coming.

The first leaves of green are breaking through the ground.

Here in Atlanta, this means, of course - one more killer frost that will cut them down. But then after that, the Dogwoods bloom. And let's face it, everyone should get spring fever at least once in a while.

Have a nice day. I'm going to be working on a presentation to try to convince someone that I actually know what I'm doing. When I'm working with people that don't. Peace out.