The Election of 2010

It's human nature, I suppose -to attempt to see the future. Perhaps this is because somewhere, deep in our genetic memory - we have an image of what will happen to all life on the planet. We know , somewhere deep down - that there's a very real benefit to achieving a kind of immortality - and a means by which we can traverse the cycles of life without having to end the long construction of our code, in only one generation.

So, of course, we try to figure out what's going on in complex systems. We stare at the weather and attempt to make a prediction. We look at the stock market, craps tables, roulette wheels, and any other complex system involving nonlinear effects - and we try to guess what will happen.

In my own state, there are alot of races that are converging to a November 2010 Finish. This is the post primary season, the few weeks after a primary in which most of the candidates are ramping up for the big run to the General Election in the fall.

Painting in broad brushstrokes, America will be voting on issues relating to stil-present corruption in governance. The administration of 'change' has been dealt a stack of cards that included alot of jokers - a massive economic crash, widespread corruption, and the largest expense account in American history. Most of this centered around the seemingly ever-increasing role that lobbyism plays in American politics.

We thought we had the right man. Obama took an anti-lobbyist stance early on in his administration. But , as last week shows - the people he encircled himself with - are as sensitive about his image, as they are about their ties to lobbyism. He hired a chief of staff that for all intents and purposes set up an appointment roster that populated from the ranks of lobbyism. And the deeply flawed legislation that arose reflected it.

And now we have a subtle game. The lobbyists know that subtlety is not a strong point for the American electorate. Voters must throw out certain members of the Democratic party - by and large a strong working coalition that has succeeded in the face of enormous pro-lobbyism GOP tactics and delay. But one which has a few deeply flawed members that deserve the boot. And at the same time, they must also throw out members of the opposition - maintaining a voter strategy from 2008.

Lobbyist money quickly moved from the Republican to Democratic party in early 2009. At one point, nearly 1.1 million dollars were being spent per day to attempt to block healthcare reform. The idea that the lobbyists are working on , is pretty simple: convince the senator or congressman that they need massive , and expensive television coverage - and then try to influence them to take massive donations from their moneyed and controlling interests in exchange for their ability to supplant themselves as the voice of the American people.

There was so much lobbyist influence in the GOP, that a backlash was inevitable. The TEA party arose as a result of the loss of conservatism in the GOP - but it failed to cut itself away from the GOP and is now being methodically absorbed into the GOP. Much hinges around the activism of the democratic electorate, however - and the paid and earned media coverage of the TEA party is as much designed to instill in the democratic electorate the sense that the right wing is more charged up - than it is to simply convey the message or otherwise accomplish the goals of viability for a third party.

The goal of the lobbyist in this election - is a kind of stalemate. Where the Congress passes control to one party, and the senate is divided. In this atmosphere, they will fester and multiply like microbes in the still murk of a stagnant pond.

But what will happen? My prediction is: unpredictability. The American people have fundamentally changed the way that they select, vote for - and vet candidates in a race -and its no longer about money, or television advertising, or even to a certain extent the old boy network - it's about clarity of purpose. Here's the lay of the land.

  1. First, the economy will turn in the next month or so - and show positive characteristics. This is all well orchestrated by small business and a general rebound that has long been overdue and will respond to the timing mechanisms of the political interests involved
  2. The average voter who pattern-voted for change in 2008 will maintain his or her party affiliation and vote along that party line
  3. He or she will think carefully about who to vote for - and utilize internet resources in their quest to vote in the right candidate.
  4. The driving issue of the election will be "Jobs", and the Democratic party will come up looking strong early into November - as the economy turns. This will allow the party to turn the dialogue towards other matters, in which the GOP will turn up looking weak
  5. The House and Senate will remain under the Control of the Dems, but no seats will be picked up

The exception to this prediction is , perhaps - the candidacy of Michael Thurmond, for US Senate. His is an interesting story. He was elected commissioner of labor by a stunning margin of victory - nearly 90 percent - re-elected, and then went on to win his primary by 86%. Not many people know of him - and he has his sights set on taking the seat held by John Isaakson. Thurmond got his start as an appointed official of the loved, and highly conservative Zell Miller and likely shares contact with this Fox News Commentator.

Georgia, as a colony, was founded on the motto "Not for ourselves, but for others"... Sen. Thurmonds website has no articles, or press releases - no detailed stance on any of the issues (at time of writing), nor photos, multimedia - or much else. But when it is complete - and his candidacy takes hold, he may well be the 60th vote in the senate to restore the operation of that body.

It's going to be a good race. So far, Johnny has the edge. But if the electorate moves against the predicted pattern , much as it has done in elections past and the latest surprise primary season - we may very well have a responsive, operant government in November.

But for now, it's been a pretty good run on the current election - the first healthcare reform bill passed in 40 years, the largest overhaul of financial regulation since the great depression, the president of the United States winning a Nobel Peace Prize while in office, and the restoration of diplomatic alliances worldwide. We've seen a massive economic crash repaired, and our economy sent on its way to restoration, unemployment benefits extended and people who were under threat of foreclosure , manage to keep their homes and hang on for the ride. The housing market, under the direct influence of government policies - rebounded . (After the policy ended in April, the Market turned down again! It's still a good time to buy a home!). The markets climbed up nearly 4,000 points in only two years.

The team that we sent to Washington did a pretty good job. The lobbyists don't want you to believe this. Because they need Washington, at its core - to remain broken. And certainly, the Senate suffers from their influence.

But by and large, the lights will go on in the Election of 2010 and people will realize they are better off under the influence of people who are at least trying to throw the bastards out - rather than the ones whom, if they were elected, would just replace the reformers - with hired lackeys of the old guard. It's going to be a good year for change.

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