Clinton Can't Win

The way the democratic race is running, Hillary no longer has a chance to win any more votes than the total Obama took away. What that means is that the only way Clinton will win is if she gets superdelegates to head over to her.

I think questions like these strike at the heart of democratic process. Republicans enjoy the concept that we're not a democracy - they argue that , like the Roman senate - we elect those who will in turn represent us but we do not actually decide (there is therefore no rule by the people). Most of the Republican ideal is based on making that process effecient, having less bureaucracy and more centralized power.

The Democratic argument that is slowly evolving, however, is one that recognizes that the world changed. In the blink of an eye , 200 million people could weigh in on a subject - without cost. They could hit and read the legislation without having pages or runners travelling the Appian way to bring them the scroll.

And so thats why the blogosphere and the Obamasphere have been moving in on Clinton's turf so quickly. So now the question becomes - will those that have been appointed, follow the will of the people that have put them there in the first place? Will the superdelegates , in casting their final vote - intercede the popular vote?

I think not. The superdelegates are appointed in a fashion that resembles more of an old boy network and less of a democracy. Further, they have traditionally followed the popular vote. In fact, they have never contradicted the popular vote.

With superdelegates, Obama has more votes than Clinton right now. Without them, the best Clinton can hope for is a tie.

What Hillary is doing is telling: she is trying to stop the Texas democratic party from holding their convention and assigning their delegates, because she has been relying on press that said she actually won it - however Texas is winner take all for a third of its assigned delegates and Obama won the larger delegate count. This means that Bill Clintons quote about how Hillary has to Win Texas and Ohio to stay viable will come back to haunt the campaign - this is supposed to happen March 29, in a few weeks. They are struggling - Clinton is desperate to keep this from happening because at that point Obama will step forward and claim a delegate victory there (he won about eight more delegates than Clinton in Texas, if I am not mistaken).

She tried to have cancelled primaries where only her campaign had actually participated - included in the recount. And she's leaned heavily on superdelegates, associates of her husband, former President Bill Clinton. This is a failed strategy. Since January, 47 superdelegates have gone to Obama and none to Clinton. Furthermore, at least one of her superdelegates left her camp. And in the last few days Florida stated categorically that they will not re-vote.

So Obama won the primary.


M@ said…
Hey, Partisan.

I think you're making the correct prediction that Obama would win the democrat primary in the coming weeks but Clinton may now be running for vice president, too. It seems she's putting the screws to him but he'd like to choose someone else for the ticket.

I agree that more democrats support Obama and I think a large part of that is that whites and blacks trust that a black man would "represent."

But please stop coining words using Obama as a prefix. I'm going to barrarph if I hear yet another.
M@ said…
I'm going to vote for the black guy, too. Frankly, I would prefer someone of my own racial-ethnic group, like 91% of African Americans in Louisiana, for example, but I just can't in good conscious vote for Sen. John McCain.

Where McCain is conservative, I am liberal. Where McCain is liberal, I am conservative. Can't do it. It's either Obama or a write-in.