Barack Obama Takes Iowa

So in the first caucus we have Barack Obama taking Iowa from the strength of a youth vote ( over 1 in 5 caucus goers were 17-29 and they overwhelmingly broke for obama) and on the GOP side, evangelicals ( 28-42 age demographic) broke for Mike Huckabee. As I posted earlier, the turnout is 25% which is more than double the standard turnout. Obama takes 58% of this vote, and its all chips on the table and call for the Clinton campaign who is now driven down to third place. That said, I believe Clinton is Obama's obvious choice for VP.

Iowa is a trip. A total trip. Of course now the rumours are going to start that Obama will do a deal to make Richardson Secretary of State.

It really blows my mind sometimes how difficult it is to get a truly progressive agenda accomplished, in either party. Huckabee seems to be the obvious choice for someone who is comfortable with the GOP trendline for bringing fear into the equation and forcing voters out of their comfort zone into things that live beyond them like ideology and nationalism. Barack Obama, on the other hand, has the largest base of support of small online donors and is truly going to be an agent of change. I think Obama is the second coming of Howard Dean and this time the battle will be fought and won in New Hampshire. Earned media coverage from that victory will make it a win for Obama straight out. Richardson supporters are seemingly breaking for him in droves, and with a three way tie, the fact that each precinct is all or nothing means that in Iowa, Obama can take a huge lead for every real win. He is currently blasting past Clinton by more than 8%.

The GOP is a fun race this year. McCain really got screwed out of Iowa but is currently peaking in NH. This placement by Huckabee will be a slap in the face to the NH base of support that McCain enjoys. There may be a duel waiting there. Romney dropped a huge amount of money and lost. McCain won New Hampshire before.

The democratic party vs. the republican party is shaping up to be a socio political duel between the young, college educated and the old social conservatives. I feel for anyone who calls themself an "independent". Usually thats just a pen name for "ex republican". The GOP used to be a party that would carry the banner of social moderation or even liberalism, and fiscal conservatism. They are a gray landscape of failed policies , mostly due to the involvement of Karl Rove. Huckabee, in my view, makes this race interesting because he is the cynically logical extension of those failed policies. People who build castles in mid air should not be entrusted with 200 billion dollar a year budgets. Even more so, people who bulldoze entire mid air forests to set up row after row of McMansion castles, then build out themed restaurants. Then take out a home improvement loan.

That said, the race for the Whitehouse goes through Jan 8th to a front loaded primary that will slingshot the winner into earned media. Obama is a Rock Star. And , if you think of yourself as a conservative (which I know you happen to do) and you are interested in fighting for some sort of conservative position. Vote for Obama. At least you'll get the lobbyists out of power. Oh, by the way. Did I mention Florida is up next here, soon?

Obama just might appoint a Secretary of State that can build this thing called... foreign policy. You Huckabee supporters might have to look it up. It means not being a religious wingnut for more than thirty seconds. Enjoy it while it lasts.

President Huckabee. roflmao. My allegiance is now known.

Comments

Franki said…
Oh the agony of Florida.